국내 가계대출의 특징과 결정요인 분석

• 영문명: Analysis of Characteristics and Determinants of Household Loans in Korea: Focusing on COVID-19
• 발행기관: 강원대학교 경영경제연구소
• 저자명: 장진희 홍재범 최승두
• 간행물 정보: 『아태비즈니스연구』제14권 제2호, 51~61쪽, 전체 11쪽
• 주제분류: 인문학 > 문학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2023.06.30

영문 초록

Purpose - Since COVID-19, the government's expansion of liquidity to stimulate the economy has resulted in an increase in private debt and an increase in asset prices of such as real estate and stocks. The recent sharp rise of the US Federal fund rate and tapering by the Fed have led to a fast rise in domestic interest rates, putting a heavy burden on the Korean economy, where the level of household debt is very high. Excessive household debt might have negative effects on the economy, such as shrinking consumption, economic recession, and deepening economic inequality. Therefore, now more than ever, it is necessary to identify the causes of the increase in household debt. Design/methodology/approach - Main methodology is regression analysis. Dependent variable is household loans from depository institutions. Independent variables are consumer price index, unemployment rate, household loan interest rate, housing sales price index, and composite stock price index. The sample periods are from 2017 to May 2022, comprising 72 months of data. The comparative analysis period before and after COVID-19 is from January 2017 to December 2019 for the pre-COVID-19 period, and from Jan 2020 to December 2022 for the post-COVID-19 period. Findings - Looking at the results of the regression analysis for the entire period, it was found that increases in the consumer price index, unemployment rate, and household loan interest rates decrease household loans, while increases in the housing sales price index increase household loans. Research implications or Originality - Household loans of depository institutions are mainly made up of high-credit and high-income borrowers with good repayment ability, so the risk of the financial system is low. As household loans are closely linked to the real estate market, the risk of household loan defaults may increase if real estate prices fall sharply.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 가계부채 현황 및 이슈

Ⅲ. 이론적 배경과 연구가설의 도출

Ⅳ. 연구방법

Ⅴ. 연구결과

Ⅵ. 결론

References

키워드

household loan COVID19 monetary policy