RCP 시나리오를 활용한 이상기후에 따른 마늘 수급 영향 분석

• 영문명: The Impact of Abnormal Climate on the Garlic Market Using RCP Scenarios
• 발행기관: 한국농업경제학회
• 저자명: 이현선 박도연 순병민
• 간행물 정보: 『농업경제연구』64권 1호, 25~43쪽, 전체 19쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2023.03.30

영문 초록

Our study investigated the impact of the implementation of greenhouse gas reduction (GGR) policies on the garlic market. We set an abnormal climate scenario; (1) emitting greenhouse gases as the current trend, (2) the greenhouse gas reductioin policy. Then, we analyzed whether the GGR policy was implemented or not. When abnormal weather occurred in 2030, Scenario 1 showed a larger decrease in yields per garlic unit than Scenario 2. On the other hand, in the case of price increase, Scenario 2 was found to be smaller than scenario 1. The results imply that if the GGR policy is implemented in abnormal climate conditions, the decrease in garlic yield per unit is relatively small due to favorable climate conditions, and it will positively contribute to stabilizing garlic prices. The results of the study suggest the need to implement GGR policies in the agricultural sector at a time when abnormal climate phenomena are inevitable. Since voluntary participation in farmers is essential to achieve carbon neutrality in the agricultural sector, policies should be implemented to increase farmers' participation rate, such as providing economic incentives when reducing greenhouse gases in the agricultural process.

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 연구방법론

Ⅲ. 자료 및 시나리오 설정

Ⅳ. 분석 결과

Ⅴ. 결 론

참고문헌

키워드

Garlic Supply and Demand Model RCP scenario Abnormal climate scenario