주택가격과 기대심리간의 관계분석

• 영문명: An Analysis of the Relationship Between Housing Prices and Business Survey Index
• 발행기관: 한국부동산정책학회
• 저자명: 최차순(Choi, Cha Soon)
• 간행물 정보: 『부동산정책연구』제22집 제3호, 67~87쪽, 전체 21쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정책학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.12.31

영문 초록

This paper empirically analyzed the short-and long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between housing price and business survey index, macroeconomic variables using cointegration analysis and ECM model as considering that psychological factors of economic subjects that cannot be explained by economic variables can affect housing price. The results of are as follow. First, the long-term equilibrium relationship between housing price and expectations showed a one-on-one relationship, with housing price rising 0.96% when economic subject optimistic expectations for the economy rose 1%. Second, in the short-term adjustment model between housing price and business survey index, housing price rose 0.021% when expectations rose 1%, while expectations rose 1.154% when housing price rose 1%. This means that a rise in housing price increases expectations more than a rise in expectations raises housing price. Third, the error correction term between housing price and business survey index was statistically significant, When housing price exceed the long-term equilibrium level, the return to equilibrium is found to be resolved by about 6% within a year. Therefore, there is a need to stably manage expectations in order to stabilize the housing market.

목차

I. 서론

II. 이론적 배경 및 선행연구

III. 분석자료 및 분석방법

IV. 분석결과

V. 결론

키워드

Housing Price BSI cointegration analysis long-term equilibrium ECM model