CalTOX 모델에 의한 휘발성유기화합물의 대기 중 예측 농도와 실측 농도간의 타당성 분석에 관한 연구

• 영문명: A Study on Analyzing the Validity between the Predicted and Measured Concentrations of VOCs in the Atmosphere Using the CalTOX Model
• 발행기관: 한국환경보건학회
• 저자명: 김옥(Ok Kim) 이민우(Minwoo Lee) 박상현(Sanghyun Park) 박창용(Changyoung Park) 송영호(Youngho Song) 김병빈(Byeongbin Kim) 최진하(Jinha Choi) 이진헌(Jinheon Lee)
• 간행물 정보: 『1. 한국환경보건학회지』제46권 제5호, 576~587쪽, 전체 12쪽
• 주제분류: 공학 > 환경공학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2020.10.30

영문 초록

Objectives: This study calculated local residents exposures to VOCs (Volatile Organic Compounds) released into the atmosphere using the CalTOX model and carried out uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis. The model validity was analyzed by comparing the predicted and the actual atmospheric concentrations. Methods: Uncertainty was parsed by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation. Sensitivity was dissected with the regression (coefficients) method. The model validity was analyzed by applying r2 (coefficient of determination), RMSE (root mean square error), and the Nash-Sutcliffe EI (efficiency index) formula. Results: Among the concentrations in the atmosphere in this study, benzene was the highest and the lifetime average daily dose of benzene and the average daily dose of xylene were high. In terms of the sensitivity analysis outcome, the source term to air, exposure time, indoors resting (ETri), exposure time, outdoors at home (ETao), yearly average wind speed (v_w), contaminated area in m2 (Area), active breathing rate (BRa), resting breathing rate (BRr), exposure time, and active indoors (ETai) were elicited as input variables having great influence upon this model. In consequence of inspecting the validity of the model, r2 appeared to be a value close to 1 and RMSE appeared to be a value close to 0, but EI indicated unacceptable model efficiency. To supplement this value, the regression formula was derived for benzene with y=0.002+15.48x, ethylbenzene with y ≡ 0.001+57.240x, styrene with y=0.000+42.249x, toluene with y=0.004+91.588x, and xylene with y=0.000+ 0.007x. Conclusions: In consequence of inspecting the validity of the model, r2 appeared to be a value close to 1 and RMSE appeared to be a value close to 0, but EI indicated unacceptable model efficiency. This will be able to be used as base data for securing the accuracy and reliability of the model.

목차

I. 서 론

II. 재료 및 방법

III. 연구 결과

IV. 고 찰

V. 결 론

References

키워드

Uncertainty analysis sensitivity analysis efficiency verification validity