Is the RCEP a Cornerstone or Just Collaboration? Regional General Equilibrium Model Based on GAMS

• 발행기관: 한국무역학회
• 저자명: Yosri Nasr Ahmed Huang Delin Benito Giovanni Reeberg Victor Shaker
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of Korea Trade (JKT)』Vol.24 No.1, 171~207쪽, 전체 37쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2020.02.28

영문 초록

Purpose – This paper investigates the potential effect of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on trade liberalization among member countries in order to answer key questions in our research on whether the RCEP will be a cornerstone or just collaboration. Furthermore, it aims to measure the likely magnitude of the economic impact it has on its members. Design/methodology – Toward achieving research objectives, we developed a regional CGE model based on the GTAP 9 database. Findings – The simulation results show Korea, Australia, India, and Japan ranked the top countries with an average growth in GDP of 0.38 %, 0.36%, 0.29%, and 0.23%, respectively. Moreover, China and New Zealand followed with a percentage of 0.12% each. The lower economic performing group is the ASEAN group due to a contraction in GDP by 0.13%. Accordingly, there was a positive impact of the RCEP agreement on all member states, as empirically demonstrated. Furthermore, Korea is one of the countries that will benefit most from joining this agreement. Finally, this agreement is important; it has many economic benefits to member states, but it is not a cornerstone. Originality/value – The examination of the quantitative effects of tariff removal among the RCEP s countries is its value. We will address all member countries of the convention simultaneously using a regional CGE model GAMS language, where we employed a Mathematical Programming System for General Equilibrium (MPSGE) to establish a Regional CGE model. This study is directed to policymakers looking at evaluating RCEP agreement.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Methodology

3. Data Sources and Preparation of SAM for RCEP Countries

4. Policy Simulation Scenario

5. Potential Economic Impact of Tariff Reductions among RCEP Members

6. Conclusion

키워드

RCEP Agreement Regional CGE Model Trade Liberalization