Estimating Armington Elasticities in Major Beef Importing Countries by Bayesian Hierarchical Linear Model

• 영문명: 베이지안 계층 모형을 이용한 주요 쇠고기 수입국 Armington 탄성치 추정
• 발행기관: 한국농식품정책학회
• 저자명: Byung-Min Soon(순병민)
• 간행물 정보: 『농업경영.정책연구』농업경영·정책연구 46권 1호, 92~113쪽, 전체 22쪽
• 주제분류: 농수해양 > 식품과학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2019.03.30

영문 초록

Trade elasticities are critical for price or structural change analysis. The Armington demand model is a common approach in the international trade field. We use the Armington demand model to estimate trade elasticities, the country-of-origin bias, and the impact of the U.S. BSE outbreak on preferences. Our OLS estimation results show that the model generates theoretically wrong signs, including a positive impact of U.S. BSE on other countries’ demand for imported beef. Results of a Bayesian hierarchical model show that import demand of countries that tend to import more beef from the U.S., such as Japan, Canada, Korea, and Russia, are affected more by the U.S. BSE outbreak than countries, such as the EU that tend not to import from the U.S. The results show that consumers increase their preference for domestically produced beef over imported beef during the U.S. BSE outbreak. In addition, the results show that the Bayesian estimation can be useful when the OLS results in wrong signs or magnitude based on economic theory.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Model Framework

Ⅲ. Empirical Application

Ⅳ. Results of Bayesian Estimates

Ⅴ. Conclusions

키워드

Armington Demand Model Bayesian Hierarchical Model BSE Country-of-origin Bias