Prior Margins of Victory and Legislative Careers:

• 발행기관: 한국학술연구원
• 저자명: Junseok Kim Kyungmee Park
• 간행물 정보: 『Korea Observer』Vol 48, No 4, 669~699쪽, 전체 31쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2017.12.30

영문 초록

How do prior margins of victory influence the longevity and exit patterns of legislative careers in South Korea? Do marginal vote rates in the election determine when and how a legislator’s term ends? Although the relationship between electoral security and legislative careers in US and Western parliamentary democracies is frequently studied, little is known about legislatures in new democracies. We analyze the effects of various electoral and institutional factors (especially vote margins of victory) on the duration and departure-type patterns of legislators in the South Korean National Assembly over the last 30 years (1988–2015). Our statistical findings show that higher vote margins in the previous election decrease the chance of electoral defeat in the next election. Legislators with narrow vote margins are positively associated with a higher likelihood of enforced removal from office by the courts during their tenures. Our finding provides an interesting linkage between vote margins of victory and the abrupt discontinuity of legislative careers.

목차

I. Introduction

II. Theories of Legislative Careers

III. Legislative Career and Incumbent Turnover in South Korea

IV. Models and Method

V. Results

VI. Discussion

References

키워드

Prior margins of victory Legislative careers South Korean National Assembly Enforced Resignation Competing risk regression analysis