북한·대만·중국의 삼각관계 연구 - 약소국의 비대칭 전략삼각관계 분석모델 적용 -

• 영문명: The Study of North Korea-Taiwan-China s Triangle Relations - Analysis Modeling in Weak State s Asymmetrical Strategy Triangle Relations -
• 발행기관: 고려대학교 공공정책연구소
• 저자명: LIn, Chih-Hao
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of North Korea Studies Journal of North Korea Studies』Vol.2 No.1, 1~34쪽, 전체 34쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정책학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2016.06.30

영문 초록

The research is the triangle relation analyzation about North Korea, Taiwan, and China from 1992 to 2000. And also it includes Cross-Strait and North-South Korea Relations in the same time. In this research, the Independent variable is China; dependent variable is the relations of North Korea and Taiwan. and then apply to the theory of strategy triangle relations and the theory of weak sates, its can build an analysis model for weak states s asymmetric triangle (power) relations which can explain the weak states how to make sure their security in front of strong states and how to develop relationships with other weak states which also have relationship with the same strong states, especially in East Asia area. According to all units reaction, there are four types of strategy triangle relations. First is romantic , second is marriage , third is unit-veto , fourth is ménage a trois . And there have different name in different position in the triangle system. But per-unit which in position which called pivot, wing or pariah may have different profit-gap, enemy relations with each other. If it is used in numerical analysis sort the stability of triangle relations. The best stability of triangle relations is ménage a trois , second is romantic , third is marriage , fourth is unit-veto . In 1992, Korea and China build up formal diplomat relationships. It was gave a huge influence to North Korea and Taiwan. After 1992, North Korea tried to recovered economic hardship when Kim il Sung was dead. At the same time, Taiwan wanted to get out of diplomatic blockade from China. Both were wanted to get a revenge card to fight back Korea and China when they were established diplomatic relations. But when North Korea and Taiwan were build informal relations that mean East Asia was forming a new triangle relation. From 1992 to 1994, this triangle was marriage relations. From 1994 to 1998, it was also marriage relations too. But after 1998 to 2000, because of Taiwan and North Korean had an agreement of nuclear waste output and the plan of agriculture improvement, in addition, they dad low period with China, so in this period of time, the relation was became romantic relations with North Korea and Taiwan. But after 2000, the relationships of North Korea and China had recovered, in that time, China gave a lot of economic aid to North Korea, they became bandwagon relations. In the other hand, After DPP won the election, Taiwan and China became balance relations (defense in political, corporate in economic). So they were became romantic relations with North Korea and Taiwan. Overall, the analysis model of weak state s strategy triangle relations can explain North Korea-Taiwan-China’s relations. And explain Why Taiwan tried use “track 2 diplomatic strategy (officially non-diplomatic)” to communicate with North Korea and the other countries. But because Taiwan is a state which gets limited recognition in the world, so sometime this analysis model cannot explain some weak states which is limited recognition at all. They just can maintain their unofficial relations with economic and culture office and informal company. In the end, if this analysis model become more complete in the future, maybe it can be used to get further improvement to discuss North Korea and Taiwan’s relations or CrossStrait and Korea peninsula’s relations.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 이론적 분석틀

Ⅲ. 북한-대만-중국의 전략적 삼각관계이론 적용

Ⅳ. 제4자의 영향을 받은 비대칭 전략적 삼각관계 형성

Ⅴ. 결론