Assessing the Uncertainty of Land Based Carbon Sequestration: a Parameter Uncertainty Analysis With a Global Land use Model

• 발행기관: 한국농업경제학회
• 저자명: Yoon Hyung Kim
• 간행물 정보: 『농업경제연구』53권 3호, 1~19쪽, 전체 19쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2012.09.30

영문 초록

This paper analyzes the effect of uncertainty in several key parameters on forest land use and carbon sequestration. Monte Carlo techniques are used to turn the global forest model with no probability (Sohngen & Mendelsohn, 2003; 2007) into a proper probability model through Latin hypercube sampling. The Monte Carlo simulations indicated that most of the uncertainty in forest area in developed countries relates to uncertainty in parameters of the biomass function while in developing countries, where deforestation is more important (e.g., Brazil), the simulation showed the parameters of land supply elasticity to have the most important implications for carbon supply. The results also provide information that can be used to estimate uncertainty intervals for carbon sequestration cost functions.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Parameter Uncertainty Analysis

Ⅲ. Results and Conclusion

키워드

Global land use model Monte Carlo simulation parameter uncertainty