마코프 국면전환 모형으로 살펴 본 신흥시장 터키 경제 불확실성의 결정요인

• 영문명: Determinants of the Economic Uncertainty in the Emerging Turkish Market : Markov Regime Switching Model
• 발행기관: 명지대학교 중동문제연구소
• 저자명: 양오석(Yang Oh Suk) 한재훈(Han Jae Hoon)
• 간행물 정보: 『중동문제연구』중동문제연구 제16권2호, 75~106쪽, 전체 32쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2017.06.30

영문 초록

This paper examines the determinants of the economic uncertainty in the emerging Turkish market covering 2004-2016 daily empirical market-specific, risk-specific, and country-specific attributes. Employing the Markov Regime Switching Model, the main findings of this study are as follows: first, generally speaking, determinants of the economic uncertainty in Turkey refer to foreign exchange rates, bond market uncertainty, economic climate, counter party risk, emerging market risk, and strategic independency on imports; second, it is during high regime volatility that foreign exchange rates, bond market uncertainty, economic climate, counter-party risk, emerging market risk, and strategic independency on imports determine economic uncertainty, whilst foreign exchange rate, economic climate, counter-party risk, and strategic independency on imports determine economic uncertainty during low regime volatility.

목차

Abstract

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 이론적 배경

Ⅲ. 연구방법

Ⅳ. 분석결과

Ⅴ. 토론

Ⅵ. 결론

참고문헌

키워드

터키 신흥시장 변동성 경제 불확실성 마코프 국면전환 모형 Turkey Emerging Market Volatility Economic Uncertainty Markov Regime Switching Model