인삼가격의 불확실성을 고려한 인삼 재배사업의 실물옵션가치

• 영문명: Real Option Analysis for Ginseng Production Considering Price Uncertainty and an Extension Option
• 발행기관: 한국농식품정책학회
• 저자명: 박호정 김원용
• 간행물 정보: 『한국농식품정책학회 학술대회 논문집』2010년 하계학술대회 논문집, 1~15쪽, 전체 15쪽
• 주제분류: 농수해양 > 식품과학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2010.06.30

영문 초록

The production scheduling of ginseng typically involves a property of stage option in which a decision for investing in 4 year old ginseng is determined combined with the possibility to continue to produce 5 year old ginseng. Two important factors are considered: ginseng price uncertainty and irreversibility of investment in ginseng production. We develop a real option model to consider ginseng price uncertainty. The first stage of option is an American style of options with finite project life and the second stage of extension option embedded in the first stage. Due to non-closed solution for the presented model, numerical analysis is performed to show the optimal ginseng price to ensure profitability even in the presence of price uncertainty and opportunity cost of irreversible investment.

목차

Ⅰ.서론

Ⅱ. 인삼재배 투자결정의 실물옵션 모형

Ⅲ. 인삼재배 농가 경영형태조사 및 투자옵션 분석

Ⅳ. 결론

참고문헌

키워드

인삼재배 실물옵션 가격불확실성