농지연금제도 정립을 위한 농지가격 장기예측 방안 연구

• 영문명: Forecasting the Long-term Farmland Value for Building the Farmland Reverse Mortgage System
• 발행기관: 한국지역개발학회
• 저자명: 여창환(Yeo, Chang-Hwan) 조덕호(Cho, Deok-Ho)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국지역개발학회지』제22권 제3호, 63~80쪽, 전체 18쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역개발
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2010.09.30

영문 초록

The Korean government announces that a farmland reverse mortgage system(FRMS) will be established in 2011 in the world for the first time. It liquidates the farmland assets of the rural elderly land owners, like the housing reverse mortgage which liquidates the housing assets of elderly homeowners in order to resolve the lack of living costs for the elderly farmers. The purpose of this study suggests the long-term forecasting method farmland price which is a key factor in establishing the model of farmland reverse mortgage. It uses an ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulation method (Integrated model) to reflect the stochastic aspect which is included in the long-term land value forecasting. The farmland value forecasted with Integrated model shows the probability distribution considering the volatility of farmland price rate. The future higher value in the FRMS actuarial model results in the less default risk in the aspect of a FRMS lender. Its results show that the price of Jun(the land use of field for cultivating farm products) is higher than that of Dab(the land use of paddy field) in the deterministic estimation method. It concludes that the Integrated model which reflects the uncertainty and volatility in the long-term forecasting method is better than ARIMA, VAR, or deterministic method for the building the value forecasting model for the establishment of the long-term FRMS.

키워드

아리마 모형(ARIMA Mode) 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션(Monte Carlo Simulation) 농지가격예측(Farmland Price Forecasting) 농지역모기지(Farmland Reverse Mortgage) 시계열분석(Time-series Analysis)