제주도의 관광수요 예측과 대응

• 영문명: The Study on the Projection of Tourist Demand and the Counteraction in Jeju-do
• 발행기관: 한국지역개발학회
• 저자명: 김형기(Kim Hyeong Ki) 문경종(Moon Kyung Jong) 이성호(Lee Sung Ho)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국지역개발학회지』제25권 제2호, 131~160쪽, 전체 30쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역개발
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2013.06.30

영문 초록

This study aims at projecting the tourist demand and suggesting several counteraction methods of Jeju-do through the construction of industrial foundation and tourism industry. The methods of study include both qualitative analysis of regions and statistical prediction analysis by time series from the past. The projection is based on the projection by linear model rather than some specific model, and assumes that the population of Jeju-do and the number of tourists will follow a growing trend of logistic curve. This study refers to the population distribution, GRDP, and the tourist demand in Jeju-do, and then analyses several counteraction methods in its regions. The results of this study are as follows. The first is that the population of Jeju-do is projected to gradually reach 0.70∼0.72 millions and its tourist demand will increase from 9.69 in 2012 to 19.80 in 2020, to 25.80 millions in 2030. The second is that the airport facilities need to be enlarged because of the tourist`s increase of future and that Jeju`s naval base & tourism harbor is needed to satisfy the rising demand of local resident and tourists in Seogwipo-city. The third is that Jeju-do needs the characteristics of both the tourist & family hotel and the lodging facilities, and Seogwipo needs to build the tourism & recreation complex housing. The fourth is that tourist spots have to be established by considering the fostering of tourism industry, the development of the Myth and History Theme Park, and the fostering of Olle in seaside.

목차

1. 서 론

2. 선행연구 검토와 이론적 고찰

3. 제주도의 현황과 전망

4. 제주도의 관광수요 예측

5. 관광수요 예측결과에 의한 대응방안

6. 결 론

주

참 고 문 헌

키워드

제주도(Jeju-do) 관광수요(Tourist Demand) 예측(Projection) 대응방안(Counter-action Methods) 인구(Population)