서울시 오피스 시장의 자연공실률 추정에 관한 연구

• 영문명: Natural Vacancy Rates of the Office Markets in Seoul, Korea
• 발행기관: 한국지역개발학회
• 저자명: 임재만(Lim Jae Man) 서윤희(Seo Yun Hee)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국지역개발학회지』제23권 제2호, 195~211쪽, 전체 17쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역개발
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2011.06.30

영문 초록

The natural vacancy rate, which is a similar concept with the natural unemployment rate in labor economy, implies various market friction factors in real estate market interrupt market clearing process. This paper estimates natural vacancy rate of office market in Seoul, and investigates the relationship between real vacancy rate and rent growth. For estimating natural vacancy rate, time-invariant model and time-varying model (Hodrick-Prescott Filter) are used. Although we cannot estimate natural vacancy rates in a part of small office market because increasing vacancy rate do not cause decreasing rents, estimated natural vacancy rates with time-invariant model are 7.8% in Gangnam District, 9.1% in CBD, 5.0% in Mapo & Yeouido District, and average 4.0% in Seoul. Estimated vacancy rates with time-varying model are convergent to real vacancy rates.

목차

1. 서 론

2. 자연공실률 추정에 관한 선행연구

3. 자료와 연구모형

4. 실증결과

5. 결 론

주

참 고 문 헌

키워드

자연공실률(natural vacancy rate) 오피스시장(office market) 시간가변모형(time-varying model) HP필터(Hodrick-Prescott Filter)