INFLATION UNCERTAINTY AND INFLATION: IMPLICATIONS OF ADJUSTMENT AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY PROGRAMS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

• 발행기관: People & Global Business Association
• 저자명: Hermann Sintim Serapio Byekwaso
• 간행물 정보: 『Global Business and Finance Review』Vol.11 No.2, 61~74쪽, 전체 14쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경영학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2006.12.31

영문 초록

We investigate the possible impact of IMF and the World Bank's economic programs on the two-way link between inflation and the uncertainty of inflation in three Sub-Saharan countries from 1964-2004. Causality test results show that in all three countries the nature and direction of the relationship between inflation and uncertainty of inflation changes with the varying economic regimes resulting from IMF and World Bank Policies. Ghana shows significant evidence of the Friedman-Ball hypothesis in all regimes except the adjustment period and Senegal confirm the Cukierman-Meltzer proposition in the pre-adjustment period. In Uganda, results in the pre-adjustment period suggest an inverse relationship between inflation and uncertainty. We find no evidence of what Cukierman-Meltzer calls an opportunistic central banker during the adjustment period.

목차

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

LITERATURE REVIEW OF INFLATION AND UNCERTANTY OF INFLATION

ECONOMIC PATH TO GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT: GHANA, SENEGAL AND UGANDA

INFLATION DATA

AR (1) AND GARCH (1, 1) MODELS

STATIONARITY TESTS

DISCUSSION OF RESULTS OF THE AR (1) - GARCH (1, 1) MODEL

GRANGER CAUSALITY TESTS

CONCLUSION

REFERENCES