독자적 억제전략이 해답 : 북한 3차 핵실험에 대한 10문 10답

• 영문명: Enhancing Deterrence Capabilities is the Answer: Ten Questions on the North Korean Nuclear Test
• 발행기관: 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회)
• 저자명: 김희상(KIM Hee-Sang)
• 간행물 정보: 『신아세아』新亞細亞 第20卷 第1號, 43~67쪽, 전체 25쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2013.03.30

영문 초록

To United States. China or other nations in the world, North Korea nuclear issue might be regarded as one of mere international security problems. somewhat headachy one. but to us. it is just the issue of life or death. Moreover there seems to be no perfect countermeasure to solve NK's nuclear threat to us in fact. excepting its dismantlement. If the day comes when NK is recognized as one of the nuclear powers in the international community, our preponderant national power over NK today would be useless. and Republic of Korea would become a strategic pigmy all of a sudden. therefore the possibility of being dragged gradually and pushed to cross the threshold of communization seems high. Though the peace maintains. the peace would be no more than a slavery one. However the dismantlement of NK nuclear appears far from easy. NK's enforcement of third nuclear test amongst strong international sanctions proves that NK's will to posses nuclear is strong enough for international community to crush down. It seems doubtful whether recent UNSCR 2094, which contains unprecedented high level sanctions. would work feasibly to dismantle NK nuclear. Russia and Japan. member states of so-called six party talks seem to have little interest and no influence. and US tries to solve through China who pays more attention to protect NK regime rather than to dismantle NK nuclear. It means that if we go along the way like this, then NK nuclear would eventually become a fail accompli. If so. what should we do now? The only way for us to take is 'free unification of Korean Peninsula', as pointed out by the former Deputy Secretary of State Armitage on his '2nd Report' dated February 2007, and as widely shared by many experts. For us today whether willing or not. there is no other way but to suspend 'the deactivation of CFC ' firstly, set the national prepared posture against NK's various complex provocations. deter and respond to them properly, and move up the free unification to our best. For this end, above all. we need to encompass neighboring Big Fours. especially 'ROK-US alliance ' and "ROK-China relationship" together. Fortunately when we see the recent situations in China and US. it seems to be viable. Even NK's playing the reckless 'nuclear game', according as we handle it. is likely to work and help the viability raised up. Moreover it is said that today's NK in fact is reaching at the limit point of regime existence. /ls we see through the realities in NK, lead the South-North relationship, get the mind of North populace. and make every effort for the goal of 'free unification', then the chance will surely come before long. So far. at least it seems clear that the future of Korean peninsula depends on our will and vision.

목차

전략적 결단을 강요하고 있는 북한 3차 핵실험

1. 북한은 ‘미국 위협에 대처하기 위해서’라는데 북 핵의 우리에 대한 위협은?

2. 북한 핵 무기 기술 수준은?

3. 김정은이 국제 사회의 강력한 제재에도 심험을 강행한 의도와 이유는 무엇인가? 4차 핵실험 가능성도 제기되고 있는데 또 다시 핵실험을 강행할 것인가?

4. 중국도 이번에는 북한에 상당히 강하게 핵실험 중단 압력을 넣었다는데, 이렇게 온 세계가 압력을 넣고 경고하고 했는데도 억제에 실패한 이유는 무엇일가?

5. 2003년부터의 북한 비핵화 협상 다자 틀인 ‘6자회담’은 끝났다고 보는가?

6. 실질적으로 북한 핵개발을 막을 수 없다면 우리의 대책은?

7. 앞으로의 중ㆍ북 관계는? 이명박 대통령은 유사시 ‘미군의 38선 이남에만 주둔한다. ’는 논리로 중국에 한반도 자유통일을 설득할 수 있다고 했는데 가능할까?

8. 미국과 중국 양국이 어느 순간 이해가 일치하면 우리나라만 외톨이가 될 가능성을 경계해야 한다는 지적도 나오는데?

9. 앞으로 2년 뒤 전작권이 넘어오면 연합사는 해체된다. 그래도 괜찮을까?

10. 그렇다면 우리의 대북정책은 어떠해야 할 것인지, 새 정부에 충고를 한다면?

Abstract