기술성장곡선을 활용한 생존모형 개발

• 영문명: Development of Survivor Models Using Technological Growth Models
• 발행기관: 한국산업경영시스템학회
• 저자명: 오현승(Hyun-Seung Oh) 조진형(Jin-Hyung Cho)
• 간행물 정보: 『산업경영시스템학회지』제33권 제4호, 167~177쪽, 전체 11쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경영학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2010.12.30

영문 초록

Recent competitive and technological changes during the past decade have accelerated the need for better capital recovery methods. Competition and technology have together shortened the expected lives of property which could not have been forecasted several years ago. Since the usage of technological growth models has been prevalent in various technological forecasting environments, the various forms of growth models have become numerous. Of six such models studied, some models do significantly better than others, especially at low penetration levels in predicting future levels of growth. A set of criteria for choosing an appropriate model for technological growth models was developed. Two major characteristics of an S-shaped curve were elected which differentiate the various models; they are the skewness of the curve and underlying assumptions regarding the variance of error structure of the model.

목차

1. 서 론

2. 기술예측모형의 개요

3. 기술성장곡선의 분석

4. 기술성장곡선의 분석 결과

5. 기술성장곡선의 선정 및 프로그램 개발

6. 결 론

키워드

Technological Growth Models Capital Recovery Methods