Re-examining Time Structures in Empirical Analysis of Great Power Wars - A Rare Events Model of Power, Alliances, and Satisfaction from 1816-1985

• 영문명: Re-examining Time Structures in Empirical Analysis of Great Power Wars - A Rare Events Model of Power, Alliances, and Satisfaction from 1816-1985
• 발행기관: 한국공공정책학회
• 저자명: Eben J. Christensen
• 간행물 정보: 『공공정책연구』한국공공정책연구 제14호, 119~138쪽, 전체 20쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정책학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2003.12.01

영문 초록

For the last six decades scholars have tried to explain the relationship of power and conflict. While the specific explanations they provide vary, most find a direct relationship between the distributions of power on the likelihood of war. Two rival theories, power transition and balance of power theory, both provide the theoretical underpinnings of these investigations. A rare-events logistics regression estimation of both theories is employed and tested over two different time structures. These structure differ in how dyad time-periods are conceptualized and investigated. The results that alliance formation directly effects conflict initiation both compliments and challenges past findings, and highlights important methodological issues in conflict research.

목차

Abstract

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review

3. Research Design

4. The Empitical Model

5. Data and Methods

6. Findings

7. Conclusion

References