국제통화위기와 투기적 공격

• 영문명: International Currency Crises and Speculative Attacks
• 발행기관: 인하대학교 산업경제연구소
• 저자명: 김진우
• 간행물 정보: 『경상논집』경상논집 제13집 제1호, 39~58쪽, 전체 20쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 1999.04.01

영문 초록

The dynamic instability in the characteristics of the market exchange rate expectation structure is analyzed to be an important factor underlying speculative attacks and currency crises. When the extrapolative chartist forecasters dominate the fundamentalist forecasters in foreign exchange market, the overvaluation of a currency can be maintained for a certain period of time. During this period, even with cumulative current account deficits, the extrapolative expectation of the foreign exchange market supports the overvaluation of the currency. But at the turning point the deepening deterioration of real economic conditions and or the apprehension for the future of the exchange value of the currency following a currency crisis in the neighboring economy induce a sudden change in the dominant force among the chartist and the fundamentalist forecasters in foreign exchange market. Now the fundamentalist forecasters who believe that the exchange value of the currency is to drop dominate the market with the conversion of the former extrapolative chartist elements. This would lead to intensive speculative attacks and a currency crisis. The above arguments are suggested to be applicable to an explanation of the development of the Korean currency crisis in 1997.

목차

1. 머릿말

2. 통화위기와 투기적 공격: 거시적 접근

3. 환율예상과 외환시장의 미시구조

4. 시장환율예상구조의 변화와 투기적 공격

5. 한국통화위기 발생과정에 관한 일 해석

6. 맺는말

참고문헌

Abstract