Spillover Effects of Trade Shocks in the Central and Eastern European and Baltic Countries

• 발행기관: 세종대학교 경제통합연구소
• 저자명: Nazmus Sadat Khan
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of Economic Integration』제35권 제1호, 39~68쪽, 전체 30쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2020.03.31

영문 초록

How does a trade shock occurring in each Central and Eastern European and Baltic country affect the economic growth and inflation of other CEE-Baltic countries? This paper addresses this question by comparing the spillover effects of trade shocks using a global vector auto-regression model with 10 CEE-Baltic countries. In constructing the foreign variables, a time-varying trade weight is used instead of a fixed weight. Oil price is included as a global variable because of its importance to the countries in the region. The results demonstrate that the trade spillover effects are strong in the region and have a positive impact on economic growth and inflation in the region. However, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland play a greater role in this transmission process than the other countries.

목차

I. Introduction

II. Literature Review

III. GVAR Model

IV. Data and Some Relevant Tests

V. Initial Findings and Dynamic Analysis

VI. Robustness Check

VII. Concluding Remarks

키워드

Trade Spillover Effects Global Vector Auto-Regression Central and Eastern European and Baltic Countries