Bilateral Macroeconomic Connectivity and Crisis Patterns

• 영문명: Bilateral Macroeconomic Connectivity and Crisis Patterns
• 발행기관: 세종대학교 경제통합연구소
• 저자명: Jong-Hee Kim
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of Economic Integration』제30권 제4호, 761~798쪽, 전체 38쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2015.12.31

영문 초록

This paper estimates the degree of connectivity between the 27 countries of the European Union. Within it the 17 countries of the Eurozone are believed to have stronger sectorlevel connectivity than other countries. We focus on the connection between those relationships and crisis indicators. The main findings are: (i) Economic fluctuations, fiscal deficit conditions, and degree of economic interaction were all found to have a powerful effect on connectivity between Eurozone nations, especially in the areas of trade and banking. (ii) The Currency Crisis Indicator for countries that have adopted the euro was also observed to increase continuously after Eurozone membership. (iii) Economic coordination was observed to have a more negative effect on currency crisis risk for Eurozone countries than relative fiscal vulnerability. However, fiscal vulnerability accounted for a larger portion of the impact of trade connectivity on crisis is stronger than did cyclical coordination.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Literature Review

Ⅲ. Data

Ⅳ. Model and Empirical Results

Ⅴ. Concluding Remarks

키워드

Currency Crisis Indicator Connectivity Vulnerability