A Study on the Forecast of Sales of Rechargeable Card-Type Onnuri Gift Certificates for the Recovery of Business District

• 발행기관: 한국유통과학회
• 저자명: Tae-Chang RYU Sang-Mok KIM Yong-Suk SON
• 간행물 정보: 『유통과학연구(JDS)』제22권 제11호, 131~140쪽, 전체 10쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2024.11.30

국문 초록

Purpose: As the sales performance of rechargeable card-type Onnuri gift certificates, first implemented in 2023, fails to meet the government's target value, it aims to use it as essential data primary data necessary to achieve the sales target of Onnuri gift certificates set by the government based on scientific predictions in 2024. Research design, data, and methodology: To measure the sales forecast of Onnuri gift certificates in the first quarter of 2024 using time series data, we tried to predict through scientific methods and present the result of making decisions through simple expansion, one of the operations research methods. Results: The sales forecast for January 2024 is expected to increase by 1.7% from the previous month, with a sales forecast of 235 billion won. From February, it was expected to show a decline and sell 211.5 billion won. It was predicted that 190.4 billion won would be sold in March and 171.3 billion won in April. Conclusion: Through short-term predictions, we presented meaningful prediction results for preparing strategies for the first quarter of 2024. The budget for selling Onnuri gift certificates in the first quarter of 2024 was forecast to be KRW 808.2 billion, and the average sales performance was predicted to be 202.1 billion.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Theoretical Consideration

3. Analysis Analytical Methods

4. Analysis Results

5. Conclusion

References

키워드

Business District Rechargeable Card Type Onnuri Gift Certificate Predictive Model Simple Exponential Smoothing Distribution