[특집] 중국의 국내정치 발전과 대외정책

• 영문명: Political Changes in China and Its Foreign Policy: Middle and Long Term Prospects
• 발행기관: 한국전략문제연구소
• 저자명: 신상진
• 간행물 정보: 『전략연구』통권 제9호, 31~75쪽, 전체 45쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 1997.03.31

영문 초록

The purpose or this research is to analyze the political, economic, social and military developments in China and their implications for the evolution of Chinese foreign policy, especially policy toward the Korean peninsula. In the second chapter, the author predicts the Chinese domestic change directions from middle and long term prospects. Followings are the major findings of this study. The existing Chinese collective leadership as Jiang Zemin core and top of it will exercise sovereign power until the CCP's 15th party congress which is scheduled to held in late 1997. The dangers of an immediate political crisis development on the occasion of Deng's death are clear to everyone within the elite group. The collective leadership, however, will change gradually after Li Peng's retirement from the premiership in the 9th National People's Congress. Collective leadership structure will likely prove difficult to maintain especially over the long term. The domestic changes over the next couple of years will almost certainly not produce a significantly more dramatic and pro-Western regime: neither will they lead to the emergence of indepenent regional power centers or the complete breakdown of political rule in China. Collective leadership is likely to inhibit bold policy initiatives, and may only support incrementalism. But post-Deng leaders will recognize that their hold on power and socio-political stability will rests heavily on their ability to achieve concrete economic success and to make life materiallybetter for the vast majority of the Chinese people. Therefore they will pursue rapid economic development policies. Performance will be seen as what counts and economic performance will be the linchpin of the continued political legitimacy of the communist leaders in China. During Jiang Zemin leadership consolidates power base, the military will increase its political influence. The common political weakness of the civilian successors will probably encounter increasing pressures to placate the armed forces on key domestic and foreign policy issues. After the new Chinese leadership surmount political transition, there is a possibility that the military intervention in policy making process will be declined gradually. Chinese leaders will use ideological and nationalistic appeals to try to establish emotive base for leadership. Chinese nationalism and patriotism will be a significant source of regime legitimacy. In the third chapter, the author predicts Chinese foreign policy direction following domestic change. China will stress to develop friendly relations with neighboring countries to sustain stable economic progress. China will pursue a friendly relationship with the two potential adversaries, U.S. and Japan as far as its national sovereignty would not be violated. Because post-Deng leadership will be recruited with highly educated and professional politicians, China will take a pragmatic and realistic policies toward foreign countries. However, considering the possibilities of China's rising power and arms buildup, military intervention in policy making process and the patriotic nationalism, there will be growing tendency of assertive and agressive foreign policies. Post-Deng leadership will put more emphasis on the peace and stability of Korean peninsula in transition period, but from the long term prospectspromotion of its influence will be more important policy object than status quo of the peninsula. Therefore, China will pursue an equal distance policy toward the two Koreas for sometime to come. And China will devote its all efforts to stop a rapid reunification of the peninsula through a sudden collapse of North Korea, combined with efforts to strengthen economic, political, and diplomatic ties with South Korea, both for developmental reasons, and in anticipation of its likely absorption of the North in 21st century. At the same time, the more U.S. and Japan reinforce rapprochement policy toward the North,

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 중국의 국내정치 변화 : 대외정책에 영향을 미칠 요인듵

Ⅲ. 중국의 국내정치 변화에 따른 대외정책 전망

Ⅳ. 한국의 정책적 고려사항

Summary