The Global Factors Driving Common Inflation In ASEAN

• 영문명: The Global Factors Driving Common Inflation In ASEAN
• 발행기관: People & Global Business Association
• 저자명: Trinh, Pham T. T Nhan, Le P. A.
• 간행물 정보: 『Global Business and Finance Review』Vol.28 No.4, 90~103쪽, 전체 14쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경영학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2023.08.31

영문 초록

Purpose: This study investigates the comovements of inflation across ASEAN countries and identifies the global factors driving the common inflation dynamics of the region. Design/methodology/approach: The study uses a two-step approach. The dynamic latent factor model is first employed to estimate the common inflation of the region in the period between 2000Q1 and 2022Q2. In the second step, a bound test approach to autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology is employed to estimate the model of common inflation, which is constructed based on the aggregate supply - aggregate demand (AS-AD) framework. Findings: The study finds a common factor of inflation across ASEAN countries. The analysis of variance decomposition indicates the significant role of common inflation in the variations of individual countries' inflation. World economic growth, oil price change, non-fuel commodity price change, and trade openness are the main drivers of ASEAN common inflation in both short and long terms. Research limitations/implications: The study focuses mainly on supply-side factors, although some demand-side factors are involved. Future studies should pay more concerns on the trade linkages among regional countries and the similarities in goals in the region. Originality/value: The study examines the common inflation component across ASEAN countries, which has not been sufficiently investigated. It also evaluates the drivers at the global level of common inflation, which has limited empirical evidence.

목차

I. Introduction

II. Literature Review

III. Methodology

IV. Results and Discussions

V. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

References

키워드

Inflation comovements Dynamic factor model Global factors ARDL ASEAN