An Analysis of the Exchange Rate Regime of Nepal: Determinants and Inter-Dynamic Relationship with Macroeconomic Fundamentals

• 발행기관: 한국유통과학회
• 저자명: Suresh Kumar DAHAL G. Raghavender RAJU
• 간행물 정보: 『The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business(JAFEB)』Vol. 9 No.7, 27~39쪽, 전체 13쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2022.07.31

영문 초록

The exchange rate is an important macroeconomic variable that influences internal and external balances. Nepal follows a dual exchange rate such that the Nepali rupee (NPR) is pegged with the Indian rupee (INR) but floats with the United States dollar (USD) and all other currencies. There have been very few studies on the exchange rate of Nepal, of which the majority focus on the bivariate relationship between exchange rate and another variable. However, this paper analyses the multivariate relationship between the USD-NPR exchange rate and major macroeconomic variables. Determinants of Nepal’s exchange rate have been derived with multiple regression using the ordinary least square (OLS) approach. Since the explanatory variables could not significantly capture the movement of the dependent variable, a longrun relationship between Nepal and India’s exchange rate has been analyzed using Engle-Granger cointegration to establish a relationship as suggested by a graphical representation. This explains that Nepal’s exchange rate long run is determined by India’s exchange rate than its own fundamentals. In addition, the macro-linkages of Nepal’s macroeconomic variables have been analyzed using Standard Vector Autoregressive models followed by impulse response analysis which is useful for policy decisions. Some policy implications indicating the sustainability of Nepal’s pegged regime have been drawn based on the empirical analysis.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review

3. Data and Methodology

4. Results

5. Conclusion and Policy Implications

References

Endnotes

키워드

Exchange Rate Regime Macroeconomic Determinants Cointegration Vector Autoregressive Models Impulse Response Nepal