농식품 소비 트렌드 기반 작목 선택 예측 모형

• 영문명: Crop Selection Prediction Model for Agricultural and Food Consumption Trend
• 발행기관: 한국농식품정책학회
• 저자명: 유도일(Do-il Yoo)
• 간행물 정보: 『농업경영.정책연구』농업경영·정책연구 48권 1호, 38~59쪽, 전체 22쪽
• 주제분류: 농수해양 > 식품과학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.03.31

영문 초록

This study develops a crop selection prediction model using agricultural and food consumption trend. Under the expected utility hypothesis (EUH), we devise a crop selection mechanism where farmers choose crops providing the maximum expected utility from their profit. Then, feed forward neural network (FFNN) model is used for the prediction of the expected utility, and vector autoregressive (VAR) model is constructed with atypical Big Data based on web-based text query concerning consumption trend. We apply models to the exclusive consumption trend panel data provided by the Rural Development Administration (RDA) for six specific regions. Empirical results show that various crops are predicted to provide the maximum expected utility and that the prediction model can be improved by considering atypical Big Data.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 분석모형

Ⅲ. 분석자료

Ⅳ. 분석결과

Ⅴ. 예측모형 고도화

Ⅵ. 결론 및 시사점

키워드

Crop Selection Prediction Atypical Big Data Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) Expected Utility Hypothesis (EUH) Vector Autoregressive (VAR)