우리나라 논의 지리적 입지특성과 축소지역 예측

• 영문명: Locational Characteristics and Shrinking Prediction of Rice Paddy Fields in
• 발행기관: 한국농촌지도학회
• 저자명: 김현중(Hyun-Joong Kim) 정일훈(IL-Hoon Chung)
• 간행물 정보: 『농촌지도와 개발』27권 2호, 75~87쪽, 전체 13쪽
• 주제분류: 농수해양 > 기타농수해양
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2020.06.30

영문 초록

The purpose of this study is to investigate the location characteristics of the rice paddy fields and to predict shrinking areas of them. The study area is in South Korea nationwide, and a 300×300m raster level is adopted as a spatial analysis unit. The binary logit model and spatial simulation model are employed for the analyses. As a result, population, industry, climate and nature, and accessibility play a significant role in determining rice paddy fields locations. It is predicted that the shrinking rate will be high in Gangwon-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do, and Gyeongsangnam-do until 2027. The hot spots are intensively shaped in the inland of Gangwon-do, eastern parts of Gyeonggi-do, and the borders of Gyeongsangnam-do and Jeollabuk-do between Charyeong and Sobaek mountain ranges. Using Gimcheon-si as an example, the study suggests fundamental policy implications for taking advantage of the simulation results from the lens of local agriculture. Several policy measures are proposed for improving management strategies for the rice paddy fields in the long run.

키워드

rice paddy fields farmland abandonment binary logit model cell-based simulation model geostatistics 논 경작지 포기 이항로짓모형 셀 기반 시뮬레이션 모형 공간통계기법