Estimation of the reproduction number and early prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in India using a statistical computing approach

• 발행기관: 한국역학회
• 저자명: Karthick Kanagarathinam Kavaskar Sekar
• 간행물 정보: 『Epidemiology and Health』42, 1~5쪽, 전체 5쪽
• 주제분류: 의약학 > 면역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2020.01.01

영문 초록

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which causes severe respiratory illness, has become a pandemic. The World Health Organization has declared it a public health crisis of international concern. We developed a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model for COVID-19 to show the importance of estimating the reproduction number (R0). This work is focused on predicting the COVID-19 outbreak in its early stage in India based on an estimation of R0. The developed model will help policy-makers to take active measures prior to the further spread of COVID-19. Data on daily newly infected cases in India from March 2, 2020 to April 2, 2020 were to estimate R0 using the earlyR package. The maximum-likelihood approach was used to analyze the distribution of R0 values, and the bootstrap strategy was applied for resampling to identify the most likely R0 value. We estimated the median value of R0 to be 1.471 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.351 to 1.592) and predicted that the new case count may reach 39,382 (95% CI, 34,300 to 47,351) in 30 days.

목차

INTRODUCTION

METHODS

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

CONCLUSION

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

FUNDING

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS

ORCID

REFERENCES

키워드

Basic reproduction number COVID-19 Forecasting Statistical computing