NCAR 재해석 자료를 이용한 극한풍속 예측

• 영문명: An Estimation of Extreme Wind Speeds Using NCAR Reanalysis Data
• 발행기관: 강원대학교 산업기술연구소
• 저자명: 김병민(Kim, Byung-Min) 김현기(Kim, Hyun-Gi) 권순열(Kwon, Soon-Yeol) 유능수(Yoo, Neung-Soo) 백인수(Paek, In-Su)
• 간행물 정보: 『산업기술연구』vol.35, 95~102쪽, 전체 8쪽
• 주제분류: 공학 > 공학일반
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2015.09.30

영문 초록

Two extreme wind speed prediction models, the EWM(Extreme wind speed model) in IEC61400-1 and the Gumbel method were compared in this study. The two models were used to predict extreme wind speeds of six different sites in Korea and the results were compared with long term wind data. The NCAR reanalysis data were used for inputs to two models. Various periods of input wind data were tried from 1 year to 50 years and the results were compared with the 50 year maximum wind speed of NCAR wind data. It was found that the EWM model underpredicted the extreme wind speed more than 5 % for two sites. Predictions from Gumbel method overpredicted the extreme wind speed or underpredicted it less than 5 % for all cases when the period of the input data is longer than 10 years. The period of the input wind data less than 3 years resulted in large prediction errors for Gumbel method. Predictions from the EWM model were not, however, much affected by the period of the input wind data.

목차

1. 서론

2. NCAR 재해석 자료

3. 극한풍속 예측 방법

4. NCAR 재해석자료 적용타당성

5. 극한풍속 예측결과

6. 결론

키워드

극한풍속 NCAR재해석자료 Gumbel분포 Extreme Wind Speed NCAR Reanalysis Data Gumbel Distribution IEC 61400-1 EWM(Extreme Wind Speed Model)