동태 실증수리계획법(PMP)을 이용한 기후변화의 경제적 효과 분석: 쌀 생산성 변화를 중심으로

• 영문명: Analyzing the Impacts of Climate Change on Korean Agricultural Sector Using a Recursive Positive Mathematical Programming Approach
• 발행기관: 한국농업경제학회
• 저자명: 박경원(Kyung-Won Park) 권오상(Oh-Sang Kwon)
• 간행물 정보: 『농업경제연구』52권 2호, 51~76쪽, 전체 26쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2011.06.30

영문 초록

Our study analyzes the economic impacts of climate change on Korean agricultural sector and the effects of adaptation measures. The study covers 43 agricultural products incorporated into a positive mathematical programming (PMP) agricultural sector model. The study extends the usual static PMP model into a dynamic recursive one to quantify the long-run impacts of climate change. The crop simulation information on the impacts of climate change on Korean rice productivity is incorporated into the model to quantify the economic loss. However, not only the direct impacts on rice industry but also the spillovers to other agricultural products are derived. It is shown that total profit of agricultural sector declines continuously as a result of climate change. It is projected that the loss from climate change will amount to 6.42 percent of total agricultural profit in 2100 under the IPCC SRES scenario AIB. It is also shown that climate change may increase total agricultural output if an appropriate adjustment measure is adopted.

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 분석모형

Ⅲ. 분석자료

Ⅳ. 분석결과

Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론

키워드

실증수리계획법(Positive Mathematical Programming, PMP) 동태분석(Recursive Methods)기후변화(Climate Change) 쌀 생산성(Rice Productivity)