육계가격 예측모형의 예측력 비교 평가

• 영문명: Evaluation of the Performance of Broiler Price Forecasts
• 발행기관: 한국농식품정책학회
• 저자명: 이석일(Seok-Il Lee) 김선웅(Seon-Woong Kim) 윤병삼(Byung-Sam Yoon)
• 간행물 정보: 『농업경영.정책연구』농업경영·정책연구 42권 2호, 232~248쪽, 전체 17쪽
• 주제분류: 농수해양 > 식품과학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2015.06.30

영문 초록

The primary objective of the study is to evaluate the performance of broiler price forecasts. The KREI (Korea Rural Economic Institute) forecasts are evaluated against three autoregressive time-series models; autoregressive (AR) model, seasonal AR model, and AR model with monthly dummies. Results show that KREI broiler price forecasts are superior to forecasts generated by the pure AR model, but inferior to forecasts generated by the AR model which considers the monthly effect. The results also suggest that the KREI forecasts can be further improved by combining the time-series forecasts.

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 분석자료

Ⅲ. 분석방법

Ⅳ. 분석결과

Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론

키워드

Forecast Evaluation Encompassing Test Modified Diebold and Mariano (MDM) Test Composite Forecast