An Analysis of North Korea’s Systemic Stability

• 발행기관: 한국공공정책학회
• 저자명: Chan Yul Yoo
• 간행물 정보: 『공공정책연구』공공정책연구 제16권 1호, 101~126쪽, 전체 26쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정책학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2009.06.30

영문 초록

As Kim Jong-il’s health deteriorated in the latter half of 2008, and the UN Security Council’s sanctions strengthened since mid-2009, there again circulate wishful expectations that North Korea might soon collapse. Examining the situation of North Korea inside out, however, the Pyongyang regime seems politically stable, and the chances for the North to collapse is assessed as relatively low. Possessing international primacy in Northeast Asia, the U.S. could, for a while, have pushed the North around according to its own preference, but in light of Washington’s declining power that seems possible no more. On the other hand, China’s rise and Russia’s assistance are plenty helpful for Pyongyang to create a favorable security environment. The Kim Jong-il regime seems safe internally as well. Inside the country there are no prominent political figures or organizations capable of challenging Kim’s authority. Though the economy still falters, any probability that the people will revolt seems very low. Further, North Korea’s development and possession of nuclear weapons and possibly long-range missiles are analyzed to have bestowed an enormous leverage vis-a-vis foreign aggressors. After all, the North’s political stability and possession of nuclear weapons have considerable political and military ramifications over the U.S. and South Korea, the most outstanding of which should be that the two allies, and Japan as well, require ever more reinforced security cooperation.

목차

Abstract

I. Introduction

II. The Challenged American International Preeminence

III. China’s Protection

IV. Other Foreign Relations

V. Political and Social Reality

VI. Relaxation of Economic Difficulties

VII. North Korea’s Nuclear Armament

VIII. Conclusion: A Policy toward North Korea

References

키워드

Kim Jong-il regime American decline rise of China economic weakness nuclear weapons U.S.-ROK-Japanese security cooperation