한국인 위암 사망률의 장기 예측

• 영문명: Long-term prediction of gastric cancer mortality in Korea
• 발행기관: 한국역학회
• 저자명: 곽진(Jin Gwack) 최윤희(Yun-Hee Choi) 신해림(Hai-Rim Shin) 홍윤철(Yun-Chul Hong) 유근영(Keun-Young Yoo)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국역학회지』한국역학회지 제27권 제1호, 163~172쪽, 전체 10쪽
• 주제분류: 의약학 > 면역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2005.06.01

영문 초록

Purpose : This study was carried out to predict the mortality rate for gastric cancer up to 2020 in Korea with forecasting model, Methods : The trends of the age-adjusted mortality rate was calculated from 1983 to 2003 using the mortality data of the past 20 years in Korea, and projected up to the year of 2020 with log-linear models for each gender. The number of deaths from gastric cancer was calculated from the predicted mortality rate. Results : Age-adjusted mortality rates for gastric cancer per 100,000 persons were 32.13 in 1983, 23.95 in 1990, and 15.99 in 2003 for women, and 70.37, 58.74, 41.04 for men, respectively. The expected age-adjusted mortality rates for gastric cancer were 16.50 in 2005, 14.27 in 2010, and 10.66 in 2020 for women, and 39.14, 33.83, 25.28 for men, respectively. In contrast to this decreasing trend, it is predicted that mortality rates for those aged 75 or over would increase steadily. The predicted number of deaths from gastric cancer was 6,519 for women and 13,743 for men in 2020. Conclusions : This study suggests that gastric cancer mortality rate would decrease continuously except for some aged groups. The declining trends in gastric cancer mortality are regarded as a result of lifestyle changes, improvements in screening methods and treatments. Strategies for aged groups should be developed in order to control increasing mortality rates.

목차

서 론

연구대상 및 방법

연구성적

고 찰

참고문헌

Abstract