[특집] 비대칭적 전략과 한국의 군사기획

• 영문명: Asymmetric Strategies and Their Effecton Korean Military Planning
• 발행기관: 한국전략문제연구소
• 저자명: 브루스 베넷
• 간행물 정보: 『전략연구』통권 제15호, 70~117쪽, 전체 48쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 1999.02.28

영문 초록

The recent U.S. Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) which reassessed U.S. military strategy in the post-Cold War era argued that adversary asymmetric strategies are a serious threat in the future. While the United States possesses dominant military power along many dimensions, there are also many vulnerabilities that the United States faces which could be used by an adversary to attack U.S. dominance. Asymmetric strategies attack vulnerabilities not appreciated by the “victim” (the United States, in this case) or vulnerabilities for which only limited defenses have been organized. The victim's failure to recognize such possibilities leaves that nation largely unprepared to respond to the adversary's attack. Modern warfare demands preparation, from doctrine and force structure to operational concepts and training. In modern warfare with highly technical weapons, full preparations can take years to decades to achieve. Meanwhile, future conflicts may be so short (days or weeks) that countries will be forced to depend upon the military capabilities that they have prepared; even a largely dominant military like the United States could lose conflicts if its preparations do not meet the adversary's threat. The study of asymmetric strategies and their underlying asymmetric threats may thus be critical to the United States and its allies. Not recognizing asymmetric threats, many U.S. experts see few military threats to the United States any more, and thus feel that the U.S. military can continue its draw-down to much lower levels. Similarly, many in Korea believe that after the demise of North Korea, South Korea will no longer face significant military threats: thus, the South Korean military forces could down-size considerably, in part to generate a peace dividend to help cover the costs of reunification. But a more thorough examination of Korea's future suggests that Korean military requirements will almost certainly increase in the immediate aftermath of North Korea's demise, and Korea may face substantial threats even in the long-term. Many of these threats will be asymmetric in character, threats which would attack vulnerabilities not fully appreciated by Korea. A failure to appreciate and prepare for these threats could put Korea and the overall evolution of Northeast Asia at some risk. Korea and the United States must both understand the vulnerabilities that their societies and in particular their militaries have and how adversaries might attack them; by doing so, these countries can better prepare for future crises and conflicts and hopefully reduce the means available to adversaries to seriously challenge them. The study of asymmetric strategies succeeds if it helps military and political leaders recognize the threats they could face in the future. Korea must still decide what threats it will respond to and hopefully deter and which ones it is prepared to accept. Thinking About the Future for Korea Korea's next several decades will not be just a continuation of the present. Instead, Korea will evolve through three periods: (1) the period of the North Korean threat (with either the current regime or a successor), (2) a transition period toward reunification, and (3) a period where Korea is reunified. The period of the North Korean threat could be far longer than many in the West perceive. Even a civil war or a collapse could lead to a successor regime rather than South Korean control of the North. Indeed, a North Korean attack on the South could also lead to a successor regime if North Korean NBC weapons stop or prevent a counteroffensive. Any successor regime would fundamentally depend upon the North Korean military for support, continuing the North Korean military threat. A transition period toward reunification could develop in ways largely unexpected today. The North Korean national leadership's disappearance or transfer of power tothe South Korean government would still leave middle level North Korean leaders,

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 비대칭적 전략의 정의와 성격 규정

Ⅲ. 한국의 장래

Ⅳ. 미래 한국안보에 대한 위협 전망

Ⅴ. 한국군에게 주는 함의(含意)

Ⅵ. 결론

Summary