[특집] 한반도 군축이 통일 및 경제발전에 미치는 영향

• 영문명: Effects of Arms Reduction in the Korean Peninsula on Unification and Economic Development
• 발행기관: 한국전략문제연구소
• 저자명: 함택영
• 간행물 정보: 『전략연구』통권 제19호, 53~88쪽, 전체 36쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2000.07.31

영문 초록

The purpose of this research is to objectively analyze the effects of arms control and disarmament on joint economic development as well as peace and unification of Korea. It adopts a positive, not normative, approach toward arms control and disarmament by empirically analyzing the cost and benefit of arms reduction in Korea. The contents of the research is as follows. First, it adopts “positive realism” in the study of arms control and disarmament, rejecting both idealism and “pessimist realism”. It a1so emphasizes “joint security” and the principle of “reasonable sufficiency” in national security. There exists a law of diminishing return in arms race between the two Koreas due to the asymmetric military balance, a balance between war-fighting capabilities of the ROK-U.S. forces vs. deterrent capabilities ( weapons of mass destruction) of the DPRK. In order to find out more probable approaches toward arms reduction of the two Koreas, analyses on the internal aspects of armament, such as “military burden” and “force ratio”, as well as the Korean military balance are in order. The assessment of the Korean military balance is based on the comparison of “military capital stock” of the two Koreas, rather than the widely used but less valid “bean counts” or “firepower scores” such as the ADE method. Second, the research focuses on the reality of arms race between the two Koreas rather than the normative formulas of arms control and disarmament. It especially pays attention to the domestic politico-economic factors that trigger armament and arms race. However, it turns out that the “military industrial complex” or “military Keynesianism” thesis do not apply to the two Koreas. Third, it analyzes the political, military, and economic effects of arms reduction of the two Koreas, utilizing the military burden approach. The alternative reductions in spending on personnel, operation and maintenance(O & M), and investment are explored; in addition, a proper balance between manpower vs. equipment, or equipment vs. O&M is suggested for the armed forces of the unified Korea. The political effect of arms reduction lies in the fact that the reduction itself is one of the most effective confidence-building measure. Finally, arms reduction has both direct economic effect(reallocation of resources) and indirect effect such as economic cooperation. Fourth, this research does not accept the idealist, simple assumption that military spending is the “cost of national division”. Instead, it provides with a viable, realistic policy alternatives for arms reduction formula coupled with the more economical, future-oriented force structure of Korea. Especially, the unified Korea would have to actively initiate arms control and disarmament in East Asia due to its inferior position in war potential in the region.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론: 문제의 제기

Ⅱ. 한반도 군축의 필요성 및 여건

Ⅲ. 한반도 군축의 정치적ㆍ경제적 영향

Ⅳ. 정책제언: 한국의 평화통일지향적 안보정책 및 군축방안

Ⅴ. 결론

Summary