A Study on the Influence of Oil Price Fluctuations on Agricultural Value-Added

• 영문명: A Study on the Influence of Oil Price Fluctuations on Agricultural Value-Added
• 발행기관: 위기관리 이론과 실천
• 저자명: 김준호(Junho Kim) 김태후(Taehoo Kim) 서홍석(Hong-Seok Seo)
• 간행물 정보: 『JSCM(Journal of Safety and Crisis Management)』Vol.13 No.11, 17~24쪽, 전체 8쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 행정학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2023.11.30

영문 초록

Recently, the volatility of oil prices has significantly increased due to various factors. This study aims to analyze the influences of oil price fluctuations on agricultural value added, with a particular focus on comparing the magnitude of ripple effects across different categories. In order to achieve this, we designated not only oil prices but also exchange rates and the prices of three grains as random variables, and developed a stochastic model that considers their correlations. When oil prices fluctuate within expected ranges, it was analyzed that agricultural value-added changes by approximately 540 billion KRW. When examined by category, it was found that fruit-bearing vegetables exhibited the largest ripple effect. As a policy alternative to alleviate the farmers’ operational risk, this study introduces margin insurance to effectively manage both the increases in input costs due to rising oil prices and the decreases in agricultural commodity prices.

목차

Introduction

Literature Review

Method

Results

Conclusion

Acknowledgement

References

키워드

agricultural value-added volatility of oil prices stochastic model margin insurance