Development and Application of a System Dynamics Model to Analyze Heatwave Impacts

• 영문명: Development and Application of a System Dynamics Model to Analyze Heatwave Impacts
• 발행기관: 위기관리 이론과 실천
• 저자명: 손철희 김유미 반영운
• 간행물 정보: 『JSCM(Journal of Safety and Crisis Management)』Vol.13 No.9, 25~37쪽, 전체 13쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 행정학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2023.09.30

영문 초록

The purpose of this study was to develop a system dynamics model to dynamically analyze the effects of heatwaves and apply it to real-world situations. For this purpose, first, the influencing factors of heatwaves were identified through previous studies. Second, a dynamic heatwave model was developed. Third, time series data from 2009 to 2018 were constructed, and the model was applied to Seoul. In this step, scenarios based on the budget were created, and the intensity of heatwaves resulting from changes in variables were measured. The results are as follows: First, the policy factors of heatwaves were classified into the cause and effect of the heatwave group, heatwave mitigation policy group, and heatwave adaptation group, forming a feedback structure. Second, it was observed that a 20% increase in budgets starting from 2040 led to temperature reductions of 1.57°C for the eco-friendly vehicle policy, 0.29°C for the high-efficiency air conditioners policy, 0.06°C for heatwave shelters, and 0.77°C for the creation of green space policy. Third, increasing the budget for heatwave shelters was found to be highly effective in reducing the number of people with heat-related illnesses.

목차

Introduction

Research Backgrounds

Methods

Results

Acknowledgement

References

키워드

climate change adaptation and mitigation heatwave system dynamics heat illness