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학술논문

Development and Application of a System Dynamics Model to Analyze Heatwave Impacts

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영문명
Development and Application of a System Dynamics Model to Analyze Heatwave Impacts
발행기관
위기관리 이론과 실천
저자명
손철희 김유미 반영운
간행물 정보
『JSCM(Journal of Safety and Crisis Management)』Vol.13 No.9, 25~37쪽, 전체 13쪽
주제분류
사회과학 > 행정학
파일형태
PDF
발행일자
2023.09.30
4,360

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국문 초록

영문 초록

The purpose of this study was to develop a system dynamics model to dynamically analyze the effects of heatwaves and apply it to real-world situations. For this purpose, first, the influencing factors of heatwaves were identified through previous studies. Second, a dynamic heatwave model was developed. Third, time series data from 2009 to 2018 were constructed, and the model was applied to Seoul. In this step, scenarios based on the budget were created, and the intensity of heatwaves resulting from changes in variables were measured. The results are as follows: First, the policy factors of heatwaves were classified into the cause and effect of the heatwave group, heatwave mitigation policy group, and heatwave adaptation group, forming a feedback structure. Second, it was observed that a 20% increase in budgets starting from 2040 led to temperature reductions of 1.57°C for the eco-friendly vehicle policy, 0.29°C for the high-efficiency air conditioners policy, 0.06°C for heatwave shelters, and 0.77°C for the creation of green space policy. Third, increasing the budget for heatwave shelters was found to be highly effective in reducing the number of people with heat-related illnesses.

목차

Introduction
Research Backgrounds
Methods
Results
Acknowledgement
References

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APA

손철희,김유미,반영운. (2023).Development and Application of a System Dynamics Model to Analyze Heatwave Impacts. JSCM(Journal of Safety and Crisis Management), 13 (9), 25-37

MLA

손철희,김유미,반영운. "Development and Application of a System Dynamics Model to Analyze Heatwave Impacts." JSCM(Journal of Safety and Crisis Management), 13.9(2023): 25-37

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