통화정책과 대출규제가 지역주택시장에 미치는 영향

• 영문명: The Impact on Local Housing Market according to the Monetary Policy and Lending Regulation: Focused on Seoul and Gyeonggi Province
• 발행기관: 한국부동산정책학회
• 저자명: 박용민(Park, Yong-Min) 정재호(Chung, Jae-Ho)
• 간행물 정보: 『부동산정책연구』제21집 제3호, 73~92쪽, 전체 20쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정책학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2020.12.20

영문 초록

This study focuses on liquidity as a decisive factor in price changes in the local housing market. Since there have been studies on liquidity using only macroeconomic indicators, I think there was a limit to regional analysis. So, since there is a need to analyze more three-dimensionally based on regional data, we focused on researching based on regional data along with macroeconomic indicators. This study set up a relational model by examining related theories through prior research and deriving variables that have a great influence on local real estate price changes using macroeconomic and regional variables. In particular, by creating a loan regulation index, we sought the idea of verifying the actual impact of the government s loan regulation by applying it in an index rather than a simple dummy form. Meanwhile, data from the Bank of Korea (ECOS), Housing Finance Research Institute, and the Korea Appraisal Board were used for related basic data. Looking at the results of previous studies so far, there are many studies on changes in the local housing market, focusing on macroeconomic variables. To compensate for this, I thought that it would be effective to analyze the phenomenon by dividing conditions into regulated and non-regulated regions, as loan regulations according to monetary policies differ from region to region. To identify differences between regions, we focused on studying regional economic variables. Impact studies on regional liquidity should be continued. We verified the study by mixing national and regional data for the target area. As a result of the verification, the apartment price index showed the highest explanatory power by its own variable in the Seoul area, and the long-term effect of the buying advantage index and PIR was stronger. In the Gyeonggi area, mortgage loans had the greatest impact in the initial period, but in the long run, the base interest rate and M1 were more affected.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 선행연구 검토

Ⅲ. 연구모형 및 분석방법

Ⅳ. 실증분석

Ⅴ. 연구결과 요약 및 결론

참고문헌

키워드

Monetary policy Loan regulation liquidity House price VEC VAR