충주호 수질변동의 추계학적 특성

• 영문명: Stochastic Characteristics of Water Quality Variation of the Chungju Lake
• 발행기관: 한국환경보건학회
• 저자명: 정효준 황대호 백도현 이홍근
• 간행물 정보: 『1. 한국환경보건학회지』제27권 제3호, 35~42쪽, 전체 8쪽
• 주제분류: 공학 > 환경공학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2001.09.30

영문 초록

The characteristics of water quality variation were predicted by stochastic model in Chungju dam, north Chungcheong province of south Korea, Monthly time series data of water quality from 1989 to 2001;temperature, BOD, COD and SS, were obtained from environmental yearbook and internet homepage of ministry of environment. Development of model was carried out with Box-Jenkins method, which includes model identification, estimation and diagnostic checking. ACF and PACF were used to model identification. AIC and BIC were used to model estimation. Seosonal multiplicative ARIMA(1, 0, 1)(1, 1, 0)12 model was appropriate to explain stochastic characteristics of temperature. BOD model was ARMa(2, 2, 1), COD was seasonal multiplicative ARIMA(2. 0. 1)(1. 0, 1)12, and SS was ARIMA(1, 0, 2) respectively. The simulated water quality data showed a good fitness to the observed data, as a result of model verification.ion.

키워드

Stochastic Water Quality Model Multiplicative ARIMA ACF PACF