신종·재출현전염병 유행 모델링과 도상훈련

• 영문명: Epidemic modeling and Table-top Exercise for Emerging Infectious Diseases in Korea
• 발행기관: 한국역학회
• 저자명: 천병철(Byung-Chul Chun)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국역학회지』韓國疫學會誌 第28卷 第1號, 47~63쪽, 전체 17쪽
• 주제분류: 의약학 > 면역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2006.06.01

영문 초록

  Understanding the spread of infections is of vital importance in the control of epidemics and the development of proper policies toprevent infectious diseases. Theory and techniques have been developed for the study of both the evolution of diseases with individual people and the transmission of infections through populations. From broad theoretical issues to specific practical problems, the mathematical modeling studies of infectious diseases have provided great insight to solve the mechanisms of disease spread and to predict the course of epidemics.
  Emerging and reemerging infectious diseases have attracted widespread concern in Korea. While preparing the influenza pandemic plan in 2004, we developed a model of the new influenza pandemic to estimate the number of cases and deaths, the shortage of medical resources, and the effect of interventions such as isolation and vaccination. Based on this model, we constructed a possible pandemic scenario of the emerging virus, and designed a table-top exercise for public health officials and related administration staff. On March 30th, 2005, the exercise was performed and the results were evaluated as successful.
  In the case of bioterrorism, a model of small pox epidemic was developed in 2005 to examine the speed of the disease spread in the population and to evaluate the intervention effects in a Korean city. The simulation results were also helpful to form a guideline to prepare for a small pox epidemic. These two experiments confirmed the usefulness of epidemic modeling in Korea.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 전염병 유행 모델링
Ⅲ. 생물테러로 인한 두창의 유행모델과 시뮬레이션
Ⅳ. 신종인플루엔자 대유행 모델링과 도상훈련
Ⅴ. 결론
참고문헌
Abstract

키워드

Emerging infectious diseases Epidemic modeling Table-top exercise Pandemic influenza Small pox Modeling Simulation