Statistical Estimation of Forest Fire Precaution Periods

• 발행기관: 위기관리 이론과 실천
• 저자명: Sun Kyung Ryu Hee Young Ahn Sung Yong Kim Byung Doo Lee
• 간행물 정보: 『한국위기관리논집』Crisisonomy Vol.15 No.11, 125~136쪽, 전체 12쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 행정학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2019.11.30

영문 초록

In order to maximize the efficiency of the limited resources for fire-fighting and prevention, it is important to set a forest fire precaution period by considering the temporal characteristics of forest fire occurrence and spread. In this study, the forest fire precaution periods were suggested based on statistical analysis of the national fire statistics data from 1991 to 2018. Multiple, ridge, and Lasso regression analyses were applied to identify the monthly (or 10 days) linear trend of fire occurrences, while k-means cluster analysis was used to select the precaution period. The fire occurrences in January, June, August and November have increased significantly over time, whilst those in March, April and May remained high without fluctuation over this period. The results suggest the extension of the fire precaution period in South Korea from 5 months (Spring: February 1 to May 15, Autumn: November 1 to December 15) to 8 months from mid-October to mid-June. This results from this study are expected to serve as statistical evidence for readjustment of forest fire precaution period in South Korea.

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 통계자료 및 분석 방법

Ⅲ. 결과 및 고찰

Ⅳ. 결 론

키워드

forest fire fire precautionary period fire statistics regression analysis cluster analysis