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학술논문

金融政策의 實物經濟效果에 관한 硏究-有效供給中心으로-

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영문명
A Study on the effects on the real Economy of monetary policy through the effective supply
발행기관
인하대학교 산업경제연구소
저자명
정세호(Sae-Ho Chung)
간행물 정보
『경상논집』연구논문집 제3집, 185~200쪽, 전체 16쪽
주제분류
경제경영 > 경제학
파일형태
PDF
발행일자
1989.06.01
4,720

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국문 초록

영문 초록

The question of how and why monetary policy affects real economic activity is among the oldest and most fundamental in monetary theory. Traditional theory holds that the central bank can affect aggregate demand by changing the monetary supply. In its monetarist variant, there exists a direct link between monetary supply Mand aggregate spending while in its Keynesian variant change in interest rate brought about by a change in M leads to more spending on capital goods. In recent years these conventional theories have become increasingly implausible as 'money' is becoming more difficult to define in the face of various innovations and reforms in the financial market. In other words the monetary authorities do not have as much leverage over monetary control when there are ready substitutes for money. This paper develops an explanation for how central bank affects real economy that has nothing to do with supply of money. Instead, monetary policy operates through credit rationing. The credit availability impinges on economic activity in two ways ; First when credit is tight some firms fail to get sufficient working capital to maintain the current level of production activities' thereby causing an effective supply failure. Secondly credit rationing can also affects the aggregate demand as well as aggregate supply. Firms typically cut back on capital spending when credit is unavailable, thereby affacting aggregate demand in the short run and aggregate supply in the long run. Two simple macro economy models are presented in this paper in order to analyse the effects on real economy of the supply of credit, not the effects of money supply. The real effects of monetary policy do not derive from interest elasticities or from expectational errors, but from credit rationing. The central conclusions from the two models are : (1) When credit is rationed the effect of autonomous spending on output is smaller, and the effect of monetary policy is larger than when credit constraint is not binding. In the capital formation model autonomous expenditure crowds out investment only when credit is rationed, and it crows in investment when credit is not rationed. (2) When the economy is credit-constrained, it is subject to a kind of instability owing to inflation. If it reduces supply more than demand, a reduction in credit can be inflationary and can thereby make the real supply of credit shrink further. The inflationary impact of tight credit found here is different from the more familiar cost-push inflation of higher interest rates. (3) Despite this destablizing mechanism, dynamic instability is by no means inevitable. Potential instability from credit nationing may be overcomed by other stabilizing influences such as the real balance effects and the Phillips curve effects. The two macro models presented are simple and therefore need to be expanded in the future study. Although the conclusions and implications of the two model seem to be realistic in light of recent experiences in both LDC's and OECD countries' emperical study is highly desiable in the future study.

목차

Ⅰ. 서언
Ⅱ. 신용할당과 유효공급
Ⅲ. 신용할당과 고정자본
Ⅳ. 결언
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APA

정세호(Sae-Ho Chung). (1989).金融政策의 實物經濟效果에 관한 硏究-有效供給中心으로-. 경상논집, 3 , 185-200

MLA

정세호(Sae-Ho Chung). "金融政策의 實物經濟效果에 관한 硏究-有效供給中心으로-." 경상논집, 3.(1989): 185-200

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